Something unprecedented is unfolding in Iran this weekend, and the regime’s response tells you everything you need to know about how seriously they’re taking it. Anti-government protests that began over skyrocketing food prices have exploded into a nationwide uprising spanning multiple major cities, and authorities have responded by doing something they’ve rarely done at this scale: cutting off communications entirely.
Cell service in Tehran is down. Internet access has been severed across major population centers. The government is quite literally trying to make its own people invisible to the outside world. And yet, videos and reports keep trickling out, painting a picture of a protest movement that analysts say has reached “a new level” compared to previous uprisings.
Here’s what we know about what’s happening on the ground, why this time might be different, and what it means for the volatile Middle East region.
What Triggered the Protests
The immediate spark was economic, not political, though the two have become inseparable in Iran. The protests began when the prices of basic necessities like eggs, milk, and bread spiked dramatically over the past several weeks, pushing already-struggling Iranian families past their breaking point.
Iran’s economy has been battered by years of international sanctions, government mismanagement, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation has hovered around 40% for months, according to official Iranian statistics, though independent economists suggest the real figure is significantly higher. For ordinary Iranians, this means watching their savings evaporate while basic groceries become luxury items.
“When you can’t afford to put eggs on the table for your children, politics becomes very personal very quickly,” explained Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order in Berlin, in an interview with CNN. He noted that the protests have reached “a new level” compared to previous demonstrations, including the 2022 uprising following the death of Mahsa Amini.
What distinguishes these protests from previous waves of unrest is how quickly they’ve spread geographically and how they’ve unified different segments of Iranian society. Previous protests often remained concentrated in Tehran or specific regions. This time, demonstrations have erupted simultaneously in Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz, Karaj, and dozens of smaller cities.
The Communications Blackout
On Thursday, Iranian authorities took the drastic step of cutting internet access and telephone service across much of the country. Tehran residents have confirmed to international media that cell service is completely unavailable in the capital, a move that prevents protesters from organizing and documenting the government’s response.
The blackout represents a significant escalation in the regime’s tactics. While Iran has throttled internet speeds and blocked specific apps during previous protests, a near-total communications shutdown of this scale is rare. It suggests the government views the current situation as an existential threat requiring extreme measures.
Despite the shutdown, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has continued posting on X (formerly Twitter), calling protesters “a bunch of people bent on destruction.” The irony of the regime’s leader using the very social media platforms denied to ordinary Iranians has not been lost on observers.
The blackout makes it difficult to verify reports from the ground, but videos that have emerged through various channels show massive crowds in multiple cities. Some unverified reports suggest that protesters have pushed out law enforcement and effectively occupied parts of Karaj and Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city. Mass demonstrations accompanied by civil unrest have also been reported in Shiraz and Tabriz.
Why This Time Might Be Different
Analysts are cautious about predicting the outcome of any protest movement against an authoritarian regime with Iran’s capacity for repression. But several factors make this uprising qualitatively different from previous ones.
The first is the economic dimension. The 2022 protests following Mahsa Amini’s death were primarily driven by social and political grievances, particularly women’s rights and the mandatory hijab. While those issues remain potent, economic desperation cuts across all demographics. When middle-class families who previously supported the regime can’t afford basic food, the government’s base of support erodes in ways that political protests alone cannot achieve.
The second factor is geographic spread. According to reports compiled by opposition groups and international observers, protests have been documented in at least 30 cities simultaneously. This stretches the regime’s security forces thin and makes the kind of concentrated crackdown that ended previous protests more difficult to execute.
The third factor is timing. The regional upheaval following Assad’s fall in Syria has demonstrated that entrenched authoritarian regimes in the Middle East are not as invincible as they once appeared. Iranian citizens are watching their neighbors and drawing conclusions.
“If the momentum of these protests is maintained, a crackdown from authorities will be less likely to quell the growing movement,” Fathollah-Nejad told CNN, suggesting that the regime faces a genuine dilemma between escalation and accommodation.
The Regional Stakes
Iran’s internal stability has enormous implications for an already volatile Middle East. The regime’s network of regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, depends on continued funding and coordination from Tehran. A government consumed by internal unrest has fewer resources to project power abroad.
This comes at a particularly sensitive moment. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has kept regional tensions elevated, and any perception of Iranian weakness could reshape the calculations of multiple actors across the Middle East.
For the United States and its allies, the protests present both opportunity and risk. A weakened Iranian regime might be more amenable to negotiations over its nuclear program, but a regime fighting for survival might also be more unpredictable and prone to external adventurism as a way of rallying nationalist sentiment.
What Happens Next
The coming days will be critical in determining whether these protests follow the pattern of previous uprisings or represent something more transformative. The regime’s playbook typically involves a combination of communications blackouts, mass arrests, and selective violence designed to intimidate protesters while avoiding the kind of mass casualty event that could further inflame public anger.
But that playbook assumes a protest movement that can be isolated and suppressed. If demonstrations continue spreading to new cities and the economic conditions driving them remain unaddressed, the regime may find its usual tactics insufficient.
International response has been muted so far, partly due to the communications blackout making it difficult to document abuses, and partly due to the complicated geopolitical situation. Western governments have expressed “concern” through diplomatic channels but have stopped short of more concrete actions.
For ordinary Iranians risking their safety to demand change, the world’s attention, even filtered through a communications blackout, matters. History suggests that international scrutiny, while not sufficient on its own, can constrain the worst impulses of authoritarian crackdowns.
The Bottom Line
What’s happening in Iran right now is more than another round of protests. It’s a collision between an authoritarian regime and a population that has simply run out of patience with economic mismanagement and political repression. The communications blackout tells you the regime knows this too.
Whether this becomes a transformative moment or another chapter in Iran’s long history of suppressed dissent depends on factors that remain unclear: how long protesters can sustain their momentum, whether security forces remain loyal, and whether the international community pays attention.
What’s certain is that millions of Iranians are demanding change at enormous personal risk. The least the rest of the world can do is bear witness.
Sources
- CNN Live Updates: Iran Protests
- Center for Middle East and Global Order (Ali Fathollah-Nejad analysis)
