Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is betting her political future on a gamble that most leaders would never take: dissolving parliament and calling a general election just three months after taking office. The move, announced Tuesday, would give Japanese voters the chance to validate or reject her leadership in what could be the country’s first February election in decades.
Takaichi informed senior officials from her Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, that she plans to dissolve the Lower House when parliament convenes on January 23. The election is expected to be held either February 8 or 15, with the earlier date preferred to minimize disruption to the ¥122.3 trillion ($769 billion) budget that needs to pass before the fiscal year begins in April.
For Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, the logic is straightforward: her approval ratings are sky-high and her coalition’s majority is razor-thin. A JNN survey released Sunday showed her approval at 78.1%, up 2.3 percentage points from December. Why wait for those numbers to fade when you can lock in a mandate now?
Why Call an Election So Early?
The arithmetic of Japan’s Lower House tells the story. The LDP and its new coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, hold just 230 seats in the 465-seat chamber. With three independents joining the ruling bloc, they have a bare working majority, but not the kind of cushion that allows for legislative ambition or absorbs defections.
Takaichi inherited this precarious position from a party in crisis. Her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, resigned after the LDP suffered its worst electoral result in decades in October 2025, losing seats amid a scandal over illegal political financing that had engulfed the party for months. Komeito, the Buddhist-affiliated party that had been the LDP’s coalition partner since 1999, bolted over the scandal, ending a quarter-century alliance.
The Japan Innovation Party, a right-leaning populist party based in Osaka, agreed to join the coalition in November, giving Takaichi the votes to govern. But the JIP has its own agenda, including constitutional revision and regulatory reform, and the partnership remains untested. A strong election result would give Takaichi leverage within the coalition and demonstrate that voters have endorsed the new political alignment.
The timing also reflects a window of opportunity. Opposition parties remain fragmented, with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan struggling to unite the anti-LDP vote. If Takaichi waits, the opposition could consolidate, and her own approval ratings could decline as the realities of governing set in.
The Political Calculation
Snap elections are not unusual in parliamentary systems, but calling one this quickly after taking office is rare anywhere in the democratic world. Takaichi is essentially asking voters to confirm a choice they never made directly, since Japanese voters choose parties rather than prime ministers.
Political scientists note that early elections tend to favor incumbents when approval ratings are high. Tobias Harris, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and author of a book on Japanese politics, observed that “Takaichi is playing the odds. Her popularity gives her a chance to strengthen her position before the inevitable challenges of governance erode public support.”
The risks are real, however. February elections are notoriously difficult to organize, with cold weather potentially suppressing turnout and the tight timeline creating logistical challenges. If Takaichi’s gamble fails and the LDP loses seats, she would face immediate pressure to resign, potentially ending her tenure before it truly began.
There’s also the question of what victory would look like. The LDP hasn’t won a genuine majority on its own in years, relying on coalition partners to govern. Even a strong result might leave Takaichi dependent on the Japan Innovation Party, whose policy priorities don’t always align with LDP traditions.
What Takaichi Is Promising
Takaichi has positioned herself as a reformer within the conservative tradition, emphasizing economic growth, national security, and what she calls “bold diplomacy.” Her economic platform centers on continuing aggressive monetary policy while pursuing structural reforms to boost productivity and wages.
On foreign policy, Takaichi has taken a harder line than her predecessors on China and has advocated for strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities, including the possibility of developing strike capabilities that could hit enemy bases. These positions appeal to the LDP’s conservative base but have drawn criticism from opposition parties and some within her own coalition.
The Japan Innovation Party brings its own priorities to the table, particularly constitutional revision. The party’s leader, Nobuyuki Baba, has made clear that supporting Takaichi comes with expectations of progress on rewriting Japan’s postwar constitution, a goal that has eluded the LDP for decades despite nominal support.
For voters, the choice will ultimately come down to whether they trust the LDP to deliver on economic promises and whether Takaichi’s leadership style represents the change they’re looking for. The opposition CDP has struggled to articulate a compelling alternative vision, but with just weeks to campaign, surprises remain possible.
Market Reaction and Economic Stakes
Financial markets responded immediately to the election news. The yen fell deeper into territory that has historically triggered Bank of Japan intervention, while the Nikkei and Topix stock indices rallied on the prospect of political clarity. Investors generally prefer decisive governance to prolonged uncertainty, and a strong LDP victory would signal continuity in economic policy.
The timing creates interesting dynamics for the Bank of Japan, which has been gradually normalizing monetary policy after decades of ultra-loose conditions. Governor Kazuo Ueda must navigate interest rate decisions while a political campaign unfolds, with any major moves potentially seen as favoring one side or another.
For the broader economy, the key question is whether a strengthened Takaichi government would pursue the structural reforms that economists say Japan needs. The country faces severe demographic headwinds, with an aging population and declining workforce putting pressure on everything from pension systems to healthcare to economic growth. Previous LDP governments have talked reform while delivering incrementalism.
The budget that Takaichi wants to pass before the election includes significant defense spending increases and continued fiscal support for economic growth. The opposition has criticized these priorities, arguing for greater investment in social services and climate policy.
What to Watch
The election campaign will officially begin after Takaichi dissolves parliament on January 23, with roughly two weeks of campaigning before voters head to the polls. Key factors to watch include turnout, which tends to favor the LDP when low but could benefit opposition parties if voters are energized.
The opposition’s ability to unite behind common candidates will also matter significantly. In Japan’s mixed electoral system, which combines single-member districts with proportional representation, vote-splitting among opposition parties can hand seats to the LDP even when a majority of voters prefer alternatives.
Within the LDP itself, the election results will shape internal power dynamics. Faction leaders who supported Takaichi’s rise will expect rewards if she wins convincingly, while a disappointing result could embolden rivals who lost to her in the party leadership contest.
The Bottom Line
Sanae Takaichi’s decision to call a snap election represents either political genius or hubris, and the next month will determine which. By moving quickly while her approval ratings remain high, she’s attempting to convert a narrow mandate into a genuine one, giving herself the political capital to pursue an ambitious agenda.
The gamble reflects both confidence and necessity. Governing with a bare majority is difficult in any parliamentary system, and the LDP’s new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party remains unproven. A strong election result would validate the realignment and give Takaichi leverage within her own party as well as with her coalition partner.
For Japan, the stakes extend beyond partisan politics. The country faces significant challenges, from demographic decline to regional security threats to economic stagnation, that require decisive action. Whether Takaichi’s government can deliver that action will depend significantly on how much mandate voters give her in February.
The election also matters for Japan’s international relationships, particularly with the United States. Takaichi has emphasized strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance while taking a more assertive stance toward China, positions that align with Washington’s strategic priorities. A strong electoral mandate would give her more credibility in pursuing those policies.
As Japanese voters prepare for an unexpectedly early trip to the polls, the fundamental question is whether they’re ready to give Takaichi the chance she’s asking for. The answer will shape Japanese politics for years to come.
Sources
- Takaichi set to roll the dice on risky, but potentially rewarding, snap election - Japan Times
- Japan’s Takaichi Set to Call Early Election to Shore Up Mandate - Bloomberg
- Japan’s Takaichi plans to dissolve lower house to set up an early snap election - Washington Post
- Japan plans to dissolve parliament with possible snap election in February: NHK - CNBC
