SpaceX is aiming for an $800 billion valuation in an upcoming secondary share sale, according to Wall Street Journal reports. If achieved, it would make the rocket company worth more than the GDP of Switzerland, Poland, or Saudi Arabia.
To put that in perspective: SpaceX would be the third most valuable private company in history, trailing only Saudi Aramco before its IPO and Ant Group at its peak. For a company that makes its money launching things into space, the earthly financial figures are genuinely staggering.
The Numbers Behind the Valuation
SpaceX’s value has roughly quadrupled since 2021, when it was worth around $100 billion. The company doesn’t release detailed financials, but analysts estimate it generated roughly $9 billion in revenue last year, with that figure expected to climb significantly in 2025.
The valuation implies investors are willing to pay nearly 90 times revenue for SpaceX shares. That’s an extraordinary multiple even by tech standards, where 10-20 times revenue is considered aggressive. It suggests investors believe SpaceX’s future revenue will dwarf its current numbers, and that they’re willing to bet big on that belief.
What’s Driving the Value
Three business lines justify the astronomical price tag, though not equally.
Starlink, the satellite internet service, is the revenue engine. The constellation now serves over 4 million subscribers globally, generating roughly $6 billion in annual recurring revenue. Unlike rocket launches, which are one-time transactions, Starlink produces predictable monthly income that investors love. The service is also expanding beyond consumers into enterprise, aviation, and maritime markets where pricing power is stronger.
The launch business remains the foundation. SpaceX launches more rockets than anyone else, with costs per kilogram to orbit that competitors can’t match. The Falcon 9 has become the industry workhorse, while Starship promises to revolutionize economics further once it achieves regular operation.
Government contracts provide stability. NASA’s commercial crew program, Department of Defense launches, and the Artemis moon mission contracts together represent billions in guaranteed revenue with built-in inflation adjustments.
The Musk Factor
Any honest valuation of SpaceX has to grapple with the Elon Musk question. The company’s success is inseparable from Musk’s involvement, for better and worse.
On the positive side, Musk’s engineering obsession and tolerance for risk have driven SpaceX to achieve things that seemed impossible. Reusable rockets were science fiction until SpaceX made them routine. The company moves faster than any aerospace organization in history, in part because Musk is willing to blow things up publicly rather than study problems endlessly. This approach mirrors the boring business millionaire philosophy in reverse: maximum risk for maximum reward.
On the negative side, Musk’s political activities and erratic public behavior create ongoing risks. His role in government efficiency initiatives and political controversies make SpaceX a potential target for regulatory scrutiny or contract challenges. Some institutional investors who would otherwise participate in secondary sales have passed specifically because of Musk-related concerns.
Why Investors Keep Paying
The obvious question: is $800 billion too much? Probably, by any traditional metric. But traditional metrics haven’t applied to SpaceX for years.
Investors aren’t buying SpaceX at 90 times revenue because they think current numbers justify it. They’re buying because they believe SpaceX will effectively monopolize the commercial space industry, that Starlink will become a global telecommunications giant, and that whoever controls space access controls something strategically essential.
There’s also the IPO factor. SpaceX has hinted at eventually taking Starlink public, which would unlock liquidity and potentially validate even higher valuations. Investors buying secondary shares today are betting they can sell at a premium when that happens.
The secondary share sales themselves create a self-reinforcing dynamic. Each round at a higher valuation makes the previous round look smart, attracting more buyers willing to pay even more. As long as the music keeps playing, everyone profits.
What Could Go Wrong
SpaceX isn’t invincible. Starship development has been slower than Musk’s original timelines suggested, with several test flights ending in explosions. A serious accident, especially one involving crew, could ground operations for years.
Competition is also emerging. Blue Origin is finally launching regularly, China’s space program is advancing rapidly, and new entrants are targeting specific market segments. SpaceX’s cost advantage is significant but not permanent.
The regulatory environment matters too. Space launches require government approval, and a hostile administration could create problems. Starlink operates under FCC licensing that could theoretically be challenged. These risks feel abstract now but could become concrete quickly.
For now, though, $800 billion is what the market says SpaceX is worth. Whether that’s visionary or insane depends entirely on whether the future SpaceX is building actually arrives.
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, SpaceNews, Reuters.
